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Mathieu Castagnet v Mohamed Reda (Mon 23 Apr 2018)

Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 11-5,16-14,8-11,5-11,11-5.

Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 42,153, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Mohamed Reda: 29,585, level confidence: 66%.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Mohamed Reda.

Mathieu Castagnet won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played 10% better than Mohamed Reda in this match.

As Mathieu Castagnet has played below his allowed range at 35,657, his level reduction is 9.4% before damping. On the assumption that Mathieu Castagnet would normally have been playing at level 40,541 (based on typical behaviour), Mohamed Reda played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.8% and 9.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to -7.5% and Mohamed Reda changes to +9.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes -2% and for Mohamed Reda becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 82%, Mohamed Reda: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 72%, Mohamed Reda: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 41,754, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Mohamed Reda: 30,374, level confidence: 71%.