Gregory Gaultier v Mazen Hesham (Mon 23 Apr 2018)
Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 11-7,6-11,11-8,11-4.
Starting level for
Gregory Gaultier:
62,616, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Mazen Hesham:
41,770, level confidence: 54%.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing
50% better than Mazen Hesham.
Gregory Gaultier won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played
27% better than Mazen Hesham in this match.
As Gregory Gaultier has played below his allowed range at 54,785, his level reduction is 3.6% before damping. On the assumption that Gregory Gaultier would normally have been playing at level 59,603 (based on typical behaviour), Mazen Hesham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to -2.7% and Mazen Hesham changes to +5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes -1% and for Mazen Hesham becomes +1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 76%, Mazen Hesham: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 70%, Mazen Hesham: 67%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Gregory Gaultier:
61,904, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Mazen Hesham:
42,538, level confidence: 67%.