Charlie Lee v Mark Broekman (Sat 28 Apr 2018)
Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 11-5,11-4,13-11.
Starting level for
Charlie Lee:
26,068, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Mark Broekman:
12,011, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing
117% better than Mark Broekman.
Charlie Lee won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played
75% better than Mark Broekman in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Charlie Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,021 and 26,068 without affecting his level.
In this case, Charlie Lee played at level 21,634 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Charlie Lee would normally have been playing at level 22,267 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Broekman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to 0% and Mark Broekman changes to +1.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes 0% and for Mark Broekman becomes +0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 79%, Mark Broekman: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 71%, Mark Broekman: 76%.
Final level for Charlie Lee:
26,068, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Mark Broekman:
12,108, level confidence: 76%.