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Charlie Lee v Isaac Rawcliffe (Sun 29 Apr 2018)

Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Charlie Lee: 26,074, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Isaac Rawcliffe: 11,230, level confidence: 61%.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing 132% better than Isaac Rawcliffe.

Charlie Lee won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played 40% better than Isaac Rawcliffe in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Charlie Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,191 and 26,074 without affecting his level.

As Charlie Lee has played below his allowed range at 16,887, his level reduction is 7.7% before damping. On the assumption that Charlie Lee would normally have been playing at level 21,779 (based on typical behaviour), Isaac Rawcliffe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to -4.3% and Isaac Rawcliffe changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes -1.5% and for Isaac Rawcliffe becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 84%, Isaac Rawcliffe: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 65%, Isaac Rawcliffe: 61%.

Final level for Charlie Lee: 25,684, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Isaac Rawcliffe: 11,613, level confidence: 61%.