SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Doug Green v Phil Croager (Wed 02 May 2018)

Match won by Phil Croager. Result: 2-9,0-9,0-9.

Starting level for Doug Green: 1,918, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Phil Croager: 3,054, level confidence: 70%.
Phil Croager to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Doug Green.

Phil Croager won all of the games and 93% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 278% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Croager played 278% better than Doug Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Croager actually played at a level of 4,705 and Doug Green at a level of 1,245. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Croager changes to +40% and Doug Green changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Croager becomes +13.1% and for Doug Green becomes -16%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Phil Croager is +9.8% and for Doug Green is -11%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Doug Green is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Croager: 84%, Doug Green: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Croager: 54%, Doug Green: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Green: 1,824, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Phil Croager: 3,349, level confidence: 54%.