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Daryl Selby v Peter Creed (Sat 28 Apr 2018)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-7,13-11,11-8.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 40,194, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,248, level confidence: 49%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Peter Creed.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 41% better than Peter Creed in this match.

In this case, Daryl Selby played at level 37,588 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 38,083 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Creed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to 0% and Peter Creed changes to +1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes 0% and for Peter Creed becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 84%, Peter Creed: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 81%, Peter Creed: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 40,164, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 26,591, level confidence: 67%.