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Mathieu Castagnet v Iker Pajares (Sun 29 Apr 2018)

Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 11-1,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 42,615, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Iker Pajares: 30,922, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Iker Pajares.

Mathieu Castagnet won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played 267% better than Iker Pajares in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mathieu Castagnet actually played at a level of 69,511 and Iker Pajares at a level of 18,957. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 63% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 52% and 52% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to +51% and Iker Pajares changes to -52%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes +8.7% and for Iker Pajares becomes -9.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mathieu Castagnet is limited to +5.2% and Iker Pajares is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 93%, Iker Pajares: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 57%, Iker Pajares: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 44,801, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Iker Pajares: 29,767, level confidence: 56%.