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Mathieu Castagnet v James Willstrop (Sat 05 May 2018)

Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 11-2,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 46,584, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 48,607, level confidence: 63%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Mathieu Castagnet.

Mathieu Castagnet won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played 175% better than James Willstrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mathieu Castagnet actually played at a level of 78,910 and James Willstrop at a level of 28,695. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 69% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to +68% and James Willstrop changes to -37%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes +10.8% and for James Willstrop becomes -6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mathieu Castagnet is limited to +5% and James Willstrop is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 65%, James Willstrop: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 38%, James Willstrop: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 48,911, level confidence: 38%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 46,288, level confidence: 47%.