Gregory Gaultier v Nick Matthew (Sat 05 May 2018)
Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-7.
Starting level for
Gregory Gaultier:
64,733, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nick Matthew:
50,542, level confidence: 60%.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing
28% better than Nick Matthew.
Gregory Gaultier won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played
65% better than Nick Matthew in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregory Gaultier actually played at a level of
73,474 and Nick Matthew at a level of
44,529. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to +8.7% and Nick Matthew changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes +2% and for Nick Matthew becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 91%, Nick Matthew: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 80%, Nick Matthew: 68%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Gregory Gaultier:
65,787, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Nick Matthew:
49,528, level confidence: 68%.