Mahesh Mangaonkar v Sam Fenwick (Thu 03 May 2018)
Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-3.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
31,903, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Sam Fenwick:
12,473, level confidence: 60%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
156% better than Sam Fenwick.
Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played
175% better than Sam Fenwick in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of
33,080 and Sam Fenwick at a level of
12,029. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 2.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +1.6% and Sam Fenwick changes to -2.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +0.7% and for Sam Fenwick becomes -1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cac Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 91%, Sam Fenwick: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 88%, Sam Fenwick: 75%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
32,111, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Sam Fenwick:
12,339, level confidence: 75%.