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Zahed Mohamed v Mazen Gamal (Thu 10 May 2018)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 31,216, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mazen Gamal: 26,303, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Mazen Gamal.

Zahed Mohamed won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 106% better than Mazen Gamal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zahed Mohamed actually played at a level of 41,152 and Mazen Gamal at a level of 19,952. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to +29% and Mazen Gamal changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes +5.8% and for Mazen Gamal becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chamberlain Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mazen Gamal is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 87%, Mazen Gamal: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 66%, Mazen Gamal: 67%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 32,785, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Mazen Gamal: 25,709, level confidence: 67%.