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Zahed Mohamed v Mohamed Reda (Fri 11 May 2018)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 32,630, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Mohamed Reda: 30,241, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Mohamed Reda.

Zahed Mohamed won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 56% better than Mohamed Reda in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zahed Mohamed actually played at a level of 39,289 and Mohamed Reda at a level of 25,115. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to +20% and Mohamed Reda changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes +4.2% and for Mohamed Reda becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chamberlain Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 81%, Mohamed Reda: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 67%, Mohamed Reda: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 33,849, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Mohamed Reda: 29,660, level confidence: 75%.