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Peter Creed v Patrick Rooney (Fri 11 May 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 12-14,12-10,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 29,423, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 25,193, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Patrick Rooney.

Peter Creed won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 22% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 30,035 and Patrick Rooney at a level of 24,680. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +1.9% and Patrick Rooney changes to -1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +0.8% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 81%, Patrick Rooney: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 80%, Patrick Rooney: 90%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 29,526, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 25,148, level confidence: 90%.