Simon Rösner v Gregory Gaultier (Fri 11 May 2018)
Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 5-11,11-7,6-11,3-11.
Starting level for
Simon Rösner:
49,752, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Gregory Gaultier:
65,792, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Simon Rösner.
Gregory Gaultier won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 60% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played
37% better than Simon Rösner in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregory Gaultier actually played at a level of
66,856 and Simon Rösner at a level of
48,961. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 1.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to +1.3% and Simon Rösner changes to -1.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes +0.5% and for Simon Rösner becomes -0.5%.
Given Gregory Gaultier's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 95% has been applied to his level change.
Given Simon Rösner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 79% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Bundesliga League' so the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier is 0% and for Simon Rösner is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 88%, Simon Rösner: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 87%, Simon Rösner: 83%.
Final level for Simon Rösner:
49,645, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Gregory Gaultier:
65,908, level confidence: 87%.