Gregory Gaultier v Tarek Momen (Fri 11 May 2018)
Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 11-4,11-8,15-13.
Starting level for
Gregory Gaultier:
66,269, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
56,768, level confidence: 50%.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Tarek Momen.
Gregory Gaultier won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played
50% better than Tarek Momen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregory Gaultier actually played at a level of
75,197 and Tarek Momen at a level of
50,028. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to +7.2% and Tarek Momen changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes +1.8% and for Tarek Momen becomes -2.7%.
Given Gregory Gaultier's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 95% has been applied to his level change.
Given Tarek Momen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 86% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Bundesliga League' so the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier is +0.7% and for Tarek Momen is -1.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 93%, Tarek Momen: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 82%, Tarek Momen: 63%.
Final level for Gregory Gaultier:
66,720, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
56,164, level confidence: 63%.