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Gregory Gaultier v Tarek Momen (Fri 11 May 2018)

Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 11-4,11-8,15-13.

Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 66,269, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tarek Momen: 56,768, level confidence: 50%.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Tarek Momen.

Gregory Gaultier won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played 50% better than Tarek Momen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregory Gaultier actually played at a level of 75,197 and Tarek Momen at a level of 50,028. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to +7.2% and Tarek Momen changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes +1.8% and for Tarek Momen becomes -2.7%.

Given Gregory Gaultier's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 95% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tarek Momen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 86% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Bundesliga League' so the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier is +0.7% and for Tarek Momen is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 93%, Tarek Momen: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 82%, Tarek Momen: 63%.

Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 66,720, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Tarek Momen: 56,164, level confidence: 63%.