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Charlie Lee v Jimmy Hart (Thu 17 May 2018)

Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 18-16,15-6,15-8.

Starting level for Charlie Lee: 2,382, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Jimmy Hart: 1,684, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Jimmy Hart.

Charlie Lee won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 60% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played 60% better than Jimmy Hart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Lee actually played at a level of 2,533 and Jimmy Hart at a level of 1,583. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 5.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to +5.3% and Jimmy Hart changes to -2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes +3% and for Jimmy Hart becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Charlie Lee is +1.9% and for Jimmy Hart is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 66%, Jimmy Hart: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 62%, Jimmy Hart: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Lee: 2,425, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Jimmy Hart: 1,656, level confidence: 83%.