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Chris Simpson v Charlie Lee (Mon 14 May 2018)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-9,11-9,13-15,11-7.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 36,102, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Charlie Lee: 25,822, level confidence: 61%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Charlie Lee.

Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 22% better than Charlie Lee in this match.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 32,512, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 34,847 (based on typical behaviour), Charlie Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -2.5% and Charlie Lee changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -1% and for Charlie Lee becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 85%, Charlie Lee: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 79%, Charlie Lee: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 35,658, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Charlie Lee: 26,279, level confidence: 73%.