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Gregory Gaultier v Cameron Pilley (Wed 16 May 2018)

Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 66,795, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 42,729, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Cameron Pilley.

Gregory Gaultier won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played 106% better than Cameron Pilley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregory Gaultier actually played at a level of 76,724 and Cameron Pilley at a level of 37,199. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to +10.9% and Cameron Pilley changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes +2.4% and for Cameron Pilley becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 90%, Cameron Pilley: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 78%, Cameron Pilley: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 67,950, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley: 41,890, level confidence: 75%.