SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Raphael Kandra v Mathieu Castagnet (Wed 16 May 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 41,122, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 49,380, level confidence: 37%.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Raphael Kandra.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 47% better than Mathieu Castagnet in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 54,687 and Mathieu Castagnet at a level of 37,131. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +17% and Mathieu Castagnet changes to -30%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +3.7% and for Mathieu Castagnet becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mathieu Castagnet is limited to -4.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 80%, Mathieu Castagnet: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 60%, Mathieu Castagnet: 46%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 42,515, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 48,173, level confidence: 46%.