Nick Matthew v Tarek Momen (Wed 16 May 2018)
Match won by Nick Matthew. Result: 11-4,10-12,11-4,8-11,11-2.
Starting level for
Nick Matthew:
48,871, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
56,432, level confidence: 61%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Nick Matthew.
Nick Matthew won 60% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Matthew played
21% better than Tarek Momen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Matthew actually played at a level of
57,800 and Tarek Momen at a level of
47,715. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Matthew changes to +17% and Tarek Momen changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Matthew becomes +3.5% and for Tarek Momen becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Matthew: 78%, Tarek Momen: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Matthew: 66%, Tarek Momen: 66%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Matthew:
50,460, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
54,658, level confidence: 66%.