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Charlie Lee v Yuri Farneti (Wed 16 May 2018)

Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Charlie Lee: 26,137, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Yuri Farneti: 19,366, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Yuri Farneti.

Charlie Lee won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played 120% better than Yuri Farneti in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Lee actually played at a level of 33,370 and Yuri Farneti at a level of 15,168. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to +23% and Yuri Farneti changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes +5.1% and for Yuri Farneti becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Stortford Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 85%, Yuri Farneti: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 67%, Yuri Farneti: 67%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Lee: 27,466, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Yuri Farneti: 18,866, level confidence: 67%.