Raphael Kandra v Nick Matthew (Thu 17 May 2018)
Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 9-11,11-7,11-9,11-8.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
42,368, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Nick Matthew:
50,264, level confidence: 66%.
Nick Matthew to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Raphael Kandra.
Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played
23% better than Nick Matthew in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of
51,253 and Nick Matthew at a level of
41,551. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +19% and Nick Matthew changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +4% and for Nick Matthew becomes -3.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 77%, Nick Matthew: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 64%, Nick Matthew: 67%.
A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
43,937, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Nick Matthew:
49,252, level confidence: 67%.