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Alfredo Avila v Nicholas Sachvie (Thu 17 May 2018)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-9,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 30,367, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Nicholas Sachvie: 23,182, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Nicholas Sachvie.

Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 56% better than Nicholas Sachvie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alfredo Avila actually played at a level of 33,185 and Nicholas Sachvie at a level of 21,213. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.1% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to +8.1% and Nicholas Sachvie changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes +2.2% and for Nicholas Sachvie becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Paraguay Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 61%, Nicholas Sachvie: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 56%, Nicholas Sachvie: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 30,852, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Nicholas Sachvie: 22,900, level confidence: 77%.