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Charlie Lee v Nick Mulvey (Thu 17 May 2018)

Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 5-11,11-4,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Charlie Lee: 27,619, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Nick Mulvey: 15,205, level confidence: 70%.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Nick Mulvey.

Charlie Lee won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played 29% better than Nick Mulvey in this match.

As Charlie Lee has played below his allowed range at 21,048, his level reduction is 7.7% before damping. On the assumption that Charlie Lee would normally have been playing at level 25,021 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Mulvey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 9.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to -5.7% and Nick Mulvey changes to +9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes -1.8% and for Nick Mulvey becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Stortford Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 81%, Nick Mulvey: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 68%, Nick Mulvey: 70%.

Final level for Charlie Lee: 27,140, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Nick Mulvey: 15,618, level confidence: 70%.