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Patrick Rooney v Shahjahan Khan (Thu 17 May 2018)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-3,5-11,11-9,6-11,11-6.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 26,033, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shahjahan Khan: 21,192, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Shahjahan Khan.

Patrick Rooney won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 10% better than Shahjahan Khan in this match.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 24,298, his level reduction is 4.2% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 25,677 (based on typical behaviour), Shahjahan Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -3.6% and Shahjahan Khan changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.4% and for Shahjahan Khan becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Stortford Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 92%, Shahjahan Khan: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 88%, Shahjahan Khan: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 25,656, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Shahjahan Khan: 21,557, level confidence: 85%.