Alfredo Avila v Robertino Pezzota (Fri 18 May 2018)
Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-5,12-10.
Starting level for
Alfredo Avila:
30,783, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
Robertino Pezzota:
25,274, level confidence: 54%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Robertino Pezzota.
Alfredo Avila won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played
27% better than Robertino Pezzota in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alfredo Avila actually played at a level of
31,482 and Robertino Pezzota at a level of
24,712. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to +2% and Robertino Pezzota changes to -2.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes +0.8% and for Robertino Pezzota becomes -0.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Paraguay Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 75%, Robertino Pezzota: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 73%, Robertino Pezzota: 72%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alfredo Avila:
30,866, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Robertino Pezzota:
25,218, level confidence: 72%.