Charlie Lee v Ahsan Ayaz (Fri 18 May 2018)
Match won by Charlie Lee. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-7.
Starting level for
Charlie Lee:
26,908, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Ahsan Ayaz:
23,469, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Ahsan Ayaz.
Charlie Lee won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Lee played
94% better than Ahsan Ayaz in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Lee actually played at a level of
35,012 and Ahsan Ayaz at a level of
18,037. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Lee changes to +28% and Ahsan Ayaz changes to -22%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Lee becomes +5.8% and for Ahsan Ayaz becomes -5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Stortford Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Lee: 83%, Ahsan Ayaz: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Lee: 63%, Ahsan Ayaz: 70%.
A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Charlie Lee:
28,258, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Ahsan Ayaz:
22,996, level confidence: 70%.