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Alfredo Avila v Santiago Orozco (Mon 21 May 2018)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-9,11-2,11-6.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 31,282, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Santiago Orozco: 6,964, level confidence: 60%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 349% better than Santiago Orozco.

Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 94% better than Santiago Orozco in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alfredo Avila was taking it easy by anything up to 39%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,829 and 31,282 without affecting his level.

In this case, Alfredo Avila played at level 16,126 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alfredo Avila would normally have been playing at level 19,236 (based on typical behaviour), Santiago Orozco played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to 0% and Santiago Orozco changes to +8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes 0% and for Santiago Orozco becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 89%, Santiago Orozco: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 58%, Santiago Orozco: 51%.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 31,282, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Santiago Orozco: 7,180, level confidence: 51%.