Alfredo Avila v Shawn Delierre (Tue 22 May 2018)
Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 8-11,11-7,14-12,11-2.
Starting level for
Alfredo Avila:
31,375, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Shawn Delierre:
19,313, level confidence: 45%.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing
62% better than Shawn Delierre.
Alfredo Avila won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played
29% better than Shawn Delierre in this match.
As Alfredo Avila has played below his allowed range at 26,138, his level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Alfredo Avila would normally have been playing at level 29,318 (based on typical behaviour), Shawn Delierre played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 6.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to -2.9% and Shawn Delierre changes to +6.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes -1.1% and for Shawn Delierre becomes +2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 76%, Shawn Delierre: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 68%, Shawn Delierre: 60%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila:
31,021, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Shawn Delierre:
19,710, level confidence: 60%.