SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Paul Coll v Alfredo Avila (Wed 23 May 2018)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 9-11,11-9,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 50,406, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 31,073, level confidence: 68%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Alfredo Avila.

Paul Coll won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 35% better than Alfredo Avila in this match.

As Paul Coll has played below his allowed range at 42,997, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Coll would normally have been playing at level 47,118 (based on typical behaviour), Alfredo Avila played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to -1.5% and Alfredo Avila changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes -0.6% and for Alfredo Avila becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 92%, Alfredo Avila: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 84%, Alfredo Avila: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 49,928, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila: 31,656, level confidence: 75%.