Zahed Mohamed v Vikram Malhotra (Wed 23 May 2018)
Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 9-11,13-11,11-8,11-7.
Starting level for
Zahed Mohamed:
35,869, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
27,399, level confidence: 50%.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Vikram Malhotra.
Zahed Mohamed won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played
23% better than Vikram Malhotra in this match.
As Zahed Mohamed has played below his allowed range at 33,950, his level reduction is 0.7% before damping. On the assumption that Zahed Mohamed would normally have been playing at level 35,026 (based on typical behaviour), Vikram Malhotra played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 1.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to -0.6% and Vikram Malhotra changes to +1.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes -0.2% and for Vikram Malhotra becomes +0.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 75%, Vikram Malhotra: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 73%, Vikram Malhotra: 69%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed:
35,697, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
27,767, level confidence: 69%.