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Ramit Tandon v Ahsan Ayaz (Wed 23 May 2018)

Match won by Ramit Tandon. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Ramit Tandon: 32,313, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ahsan Ayaz: 23,281, level confidence: 68%.
Ramit Tandon to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Ahsan Ayaz.

Ramit Tandon won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ramit Tandon played 230% better than Ahsan Ayaz in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ramit Tandon actually played at a level of 49,825 and Ahsan Ayaz at a level of 15,098. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 44% and 44% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ramit Tandon changes to +40% and Ahsan Ayaz changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ramit Tandon becomes +7.6% and for Ahsan Ayaz becomes -8.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ramit Tandon is limited to +5.6% and Ahsan Ayaz is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ramit Tandon: 86%, Ahsan Ayaz: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ramit Tandon: 56%, Ahsan Ayaz: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ramit Tandon: 34,137, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Ahsan Ayaz: 22,484, level confidence: 53%.