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Peter Creed v Carlos Cornes (Wed 23 May 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-6,6-11,12-10,7-11,11-4.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,338, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Carlos Cornes: 25,111, level confidence: 67%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Carlos Cornes.

Peter Creed won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 10% better than Carlos Cornes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 27,539 and Carlos Cornes at a level of 24,928. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +0.7% and Carlos Cornes changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +0.3% and for Carlos Cornes becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 72%, Carlos Cornes: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 72%, Carlos Cornes: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 27,367, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Carlos Cornes: 25,122, level confidence: 82%.