SquashLevels calculations
Julian Tomlinson v Shahjahan Khan (Sun 27 May 2018)
Match won by Shahjahan Khan. Result: 11-4,4-11,7-11,2-11.
Starting level for
Julian Tomlinson:
15,070, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Shahjahan Khan:
20,444, level confidence: 69%.
Shahjahan Khan to win as he is currently playing
36% better than Julian Tomlinson.
Shahjahan Khan won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shahjahan Khan played
35% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.
In this case, Shahjahan Khan played at level 20,288 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Julian Tomlinson is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shahjahan Khan: 83%, Julian Tomlinson: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shahjahan Khan: 83%, Julian Tomlinson: 85%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson:
15,070, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Shahjahan Khan:
20,444, level confidence: 83%.