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Nick Matthew v Saurav Ghosal (Wed 30 May 2018)

Match won by Nick Matthew. Result: 6-11,11-7,11-5,8-11,11-8.

Starting level for Nick Matthew: 49,252, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 39,064, level confidence: 62%.
Nick Matthew to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Saurav Ghosal.

Nick Matthew won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Matthew played 10% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

As Nick Matthew has played below his allowed range at 45,294, his level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Matthew would normally have been playing at level 48,387 (based on typical behaviour), Saurav Ghosal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 5.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Matthew changes to -4.3% and Saurav Ghosal changes to +5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Matthew becomes -1.4% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Necker Pro Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Matthew: 80%, Saurav Ghosal: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Matthew: 75%, Saurav Ghosal: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Matthew: 48,609, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 39,772, level confidence: 74%.