Adam Waddington v Scott Handley (Thu 07 Jun 2018)
Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 2-11,4-11,8-11.
Starting level for
Adam Waddington:
6,675, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Scott Handley:
14,273, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing
114% better than Adam Waddington.
Scott Handley won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played
136% better than Adam Waddington in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of
14,986 and Adam Waddington at a level of
6,358. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 3.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +3.4% and Adam Waddington changes to -3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +1.5% and for Adam Waddington becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 84%, Adam Waddington: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 80%, Adam Waddington: 85%.
Final level for Adam Waddington:
6,568, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Scott Handley:
14,483, level confidence: 80%.