Mick Biggs v Scott Handley (Fri 08 Jun 2018)
Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 7-11,4-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Mick Biggs:
8,376, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Scott Handley:
14,608, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing
74% better than Mick Biggs.
Scott Handley won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played
106% better than Mick Biggs in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of
15,886 and Mick Biggs at a level of
7,702. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 6.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +6.6% and Mick Biggs changes to -5.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +2.2% and for Mick Biggs becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 89%, Mick Biggs: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 82%, Mick Biggs: 87%.
Final level for Mick Biggs:
8,189, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Scott Handley:
14,925, level confidence: 82%.