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Domagoj Spoljar v Scott Handley (Sat 09 Jun 2018)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 8-11,2-11,8-11.

Starting level for Domagoj Spoljar: 9,462, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,925, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Domagoj Spoljar.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 83% better than Domagoj Spoljar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of 16,090 and Domagoj Spoljar at a level of 8,777. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +5.9% and Domagoj Spoljar changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +2% and for Domagoj Spoljar becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 91%, Domagoj Spoljar: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 84%, Domagoj Spoljar: 82%.

Final level for Domagoj Spoljar: 9,248, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 15,226, level confidence: 84%.