Domagoj Spoljar v Scott Handley (Sat 09 Jun 2018)
Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 8-11,2-11,8-11.
Starting level for
Domagoj Spoljar:
9,462, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Scott Handley:
14,925, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing
58% better than Domagoj Spoljar.
Scott Handley won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played
83% better than Domagoj Spoljar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of
16,090 and Domagoj Spoljar at a level of
8,777. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 6.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +5.9% and Domagoj Spoljar changes to -6.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +2% and for Domagoj Spoljar becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Karakal British Masters Open Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 91%, Domagoj Spoljar: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 84%, Domagoj Spoljar: 82%.
Final level for Domagoj Spoljar:
9,248, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Scott Handley:
15,226, level confidence: 84%.