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Peter Marshall v Scott Handley (Sun 10 Jun 2018)

Match won by Peter Marshall. Result: 11-8,11-13,16-14,11-4.

Starting level for Peter Marshall: 16,140, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 15,229, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Peter Marshall to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Scott Handley.

Peter Marshall won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Marshall played 25% better than Scott Handley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Marshall actually played at a level of 17,543 and Scott Handley at a level of 14,011. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Marshall changes to +8.4% and Scott Handley changes to -6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Marshall becomes +2.5% and for Scott Handley becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Marshall: 79%, Scott Handley: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Marshall: 72%, Scott Handley: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Marshall: 16,524, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 14,898, level confidence: 84%.