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Lyell Fuller v Jakob Dirnberger (Wed 06 Jun 2018)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 23,412, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jakob Dirnberger: 12,194, level confidence: 65%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 92% better than Jakob Dirnberger.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 154% better than Jakob Dirnberger in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyell Fuller actually played at a level of 26,920 and Jakob Dirnberger at a level of 10,605. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.6% and 10.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to +10.6% and Jakob Dirnberger changes to -10.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes +2.8% and for Jakob Dirnberger becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Austrian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 80%, Jakob Dirnberger: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 70%, Jakob Dirnberger: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 24,065, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Jakob Dirnberger: 11,950, level confidence: 70%.