Nick Matthew v Miguel Rodriguez (Wed 06 Jun 2018)
Match won by Nick Matthew. Result: 11-9,9-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Nick Matthew:
49,053, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Miguel Rodriguez:
56,050, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Nick Matthew.
Nick Matthew won 67% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Matthew played
13% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Matthew actually played at a level of
55,821 and Miguel Rodriguez at a level of
49,254. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 9.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Matthew changes to +9.5% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to -7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Matthew becomes +2.3% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Series Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Matthew: 79%, Miguel Rodriguez: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Matthew: 70%, Miguel Rodriguez: 78%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Matthew:
50,093, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez:
55,054, level confidence: 78%.