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Nick Matthew v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Thu 07 Jun 2018)

Match won by Nick Matthew. Result: 11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Nick Matthew: 50,077, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 61,344, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Nick Matthew.

Nick Matthew won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Matthew played 83% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Matthew actually played at a level of 75,046 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of 40,934. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 50% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 32% and 32% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Matthew changes to +32% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Matthew becomes +5.8% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Series Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Matthew is limited to +4.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Matthew: 83%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Matthew: 56%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 61%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Matthew: 52,558, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 60,111, level confidence: 61%.