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Lyell Fuller v Emyr Evans (Sat 09 Jun 2018)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 12-10,11-1,11-6.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 25,182, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 25,267, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Lyell Fuller.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 100% better than Emyr Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyell Fuller actually played at a level of 35,673 and Emyr Evans at a level of 17,836. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to +42% and Emyr Evans changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes +8.2% and for Emyr Evans becomes -7.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Austrian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lyell Fuller is limited to +6.1% and Emyr Evans is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 89%, Emyr Evans: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 63%, Emyr Evans: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 26,702, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 24,444, level confidence: 65%.