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Jack Mitterer v Scott Handley (Thu 14 Jun 2018)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 3-11,6-11,4-11.

Starting level for Jack Mitterer: 8,199, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,775, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Jack Mitterer.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 154% better than Jack Mitterer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of 17,536 and Jack Mitterer at a level of 6,908. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +14% and Jack Mitterer changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +3.7% and for Jack Mitterer becomes -4.2%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 63% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jack Mitterer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is +1.5% and for Jack Mitterer is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 91%, Jack Mitterer: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 77%, Jack Mitterer: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Mitterer: 8,012, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 14,970, level confidence: 77%.