Zahed Mohamed v Nicolas Mueller (Thu 08 Mar 2018)
Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 5-11,9-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Zahed Mohamed:
33,898, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Nicolas Mueller:
39,396, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Zahed Mohamed.
Nicolas Mueller won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played
74% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of
48,161 and Zahed Mohamed at a level of
27,729. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +17% and Zahed Mohamed changes to -20%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +3.7% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes -4.4%.
Given Nicolas Mueller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 67% has been applied to his level change.
Given Zahed Mohamed's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 60% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Swiss Interclub 17/18' so the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller is +1.7% and for Zahed Mohamed is -2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 84%, Zahed Mohamed: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 69%, Zahed Mohamed: 63%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed:
33,281, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller:
40,109, level confidence: 69%.