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Lyell Fuller v Ricardo Toscano (Wed 20 Jun 2018)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-9,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 26,702, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Ricardo Toscano: 6,010, level confidence: 43%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 344% better than Ricardo Toscano.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 74% better than Ricardo Toscano in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 38%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,225 and 26,702 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lyell Fuller played at level 13,133 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lyell Fuller would normally have been playing at level 16,524 (based on typical behaviour), Ricardo Toscano played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to 0% and Ricardo Toscano changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes 0% and for Ricardo Toscano becomes +4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Barbados Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 78%, Ricardo Toscano: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 49%, Ricardo Toscano: 41%.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 26,702, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Ricardo Toscano: 6,249, level confidence: 41%.