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Ryan Wright v Neil Mallam (Wed 20 Jun 2018)

Match won by Ryan Wright. Result: 15-13,15-11,15-11.

Starting level for Ryan Wright: 1,563, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Neil Mallam: 1,753, level confidence: 60%.
Neil Mallam to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Ryan Wright.

Ryan Wright won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Wright played 37% better than Neil Mallam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Wright actually played at a level of 1,940 and Neil Mallam at a level of 1,413. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Wright changes to +19% and Neil Mallam changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Wright becomes +8.7% and for Neil Mallam becomes -9.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Summer League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Ryan Wright is +6.5% and for Neil Mallam is -7.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Wright: 86%, Neil Mallam: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Wright: 69%, Neil Mallam: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Wright: 1,663, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Neil Mallam: 1,632, level confidence: 62%.