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Lyell Fuller v Curtis Malik (Tue 03 Jul 2018)

Match won by Curtis Malik. Result: 8-11,11-4,6-11,4-11.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 25,720, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Curtis Malik: 14,803, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Curtis Malik.

Curtis Malik won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Curtis Malik played 26% better than Lyell Fuller in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Curtis Malik actually played at a level of 21,890 and Lyell Fuller at a level of 17,393. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 48% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Curtis Malik changes to +25% and Lyell Fuller changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Curtis Malik becomes +5.9% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -7%.

Given Curtis Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 63% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lyell Fuller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 121% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Curtis Malik is +2.4% and for Lyell Fuller is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Curtis Malik: 88%, Lyell Fuller: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Curtis Malik: 60%, Lyell Fuller: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 25,186, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Curtis Malik: 15,132, level confidence: 60%.