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Lance Beddoes v Scott Handley (Wed 18 Jul 2018)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 10-12,9-11,6-11.

Starting level for Lance Beddoes: 16,057, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,660, level confidence: 57%.
Lance Beddoes to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Scott Handley.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 42% better than Lance Beddoes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Handley actually played at a level of 18,300 and Lance Beddoes at a level of 12,863. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to +24% and Lance Beddoes changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes +5.7% and for Lance Beddoes becomes -5%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 62% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lance Beddoes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 70% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is +2.3% and for Lance Beddoes is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 76%, Lance Beddoes: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 61%, Lance Beddoes: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lance Beddoes: 15,742, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 14,974, level confidence: 61%.