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Scott Handley v James Fenton (Wed 25 Jul 2018)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,966, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for James Fenton: 4,773, level confidence: 58%.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 214% better than James Fenton.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 120% better than James Fenton in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Scott Handley was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,403 and 14,966 without affecting his level.

In this case, Scott Handley played at level 10,792 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 11,092 (based on typical behaviour), James Fenton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to 0% and James Fenton changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes 0% and for James Fenton becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is 0% and for James Fenton is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 77%, James Fenton: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 64%, James Fenton: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 14,944, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for James Fenton: 4,795, level confidence: 64%.